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Are Cancer Rates Rising or Falling?

Aug 11, 2023

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As we learn more and become more technologically advanced as a society, our medical and healthcare options tend to expand and become more advanced. In developed nations, life expectancy typically rises every year (with some exceptions) because of this; every year, we're better at identifying diseases, understanding those diseases, and eventually treating patients in a way that allows them to become healthy and thrive.

But cancer operates a bit differently than other diseases. Depending on the statistics you reference, you may believe that cancer rates are rising rather than falling.

Is this really true? And if so, why?

The Problems With Assessing Cancer Rates

First, we need to address a few problems with assessing cancer rates.

Cancer is a complicated disease that’s hard to pin down – and there are myriad potential causes. For example, mesothelioma typically only arises in patients who have been exposed to a material known as asbestos. Decades ago, scientists figured out that asbestos was a deadly carcinogen, and since then, it hasn't been used in many applications that would introduce people to harm. Understandably, we've seen reductions in the number of mesothelioma cases.

But there are also cancers whose causes we don't really understand. There are cancers that emerge in response to complexly interrelated internal and external variables. There are cancers that are notoriously hard to treat, and cancers we've become much better at treating. There are cancers that are difficult to detect, and there might even be cancers we haven't been able to identify yet.

On top of that, our world is changing. People are living longer, we're adopting different lifestyles, and we're exposed to much different environmental conditions.

Because of all of these complicating factors, it's hard to fully understand cancer statistics – and it's even harder to tell what they mean for our medical capabilities and for individual cancer risks.

The Statistics: Are Cancer Rates Rising or Falling

In the United States, the age-adjusted rate of new cancer cases is falling; between 1999 and 2019, the rate fell by more than 10 percent – and this rate is expected to continue declining. And there’s more good news; cancer mortality rates are declining by about 2 percent every year.

Of course, the story is a bit more complicated than that. The total number of new cancer cases, when not adjusted for age, is actively increasing, and quite significantly. There are several reasons for this, including the fact that cancer becomes increasingly likely with age and the fact that better diagnostics lead to more frequent diagnoses.

Let's explore all of these factors, in turn.

Factors Influencing Cancer Rates

Changing cancer rates are likely attributable to the following variables more than any others:

  • Age. Age is one of the most influential variables at play when calculating cancer risk. The older you get, the more likely you are to experience cell mutations that lead to cancer. In fact, if you live long enough, cancer becomes a genuine inevitability. Because people are living longer lives and are at lower risk of death from other causes, it's understandable that cancer rates are increasing.

  • Diagnostic tools. We also have access to much better diagnostic tools, which allow us to identify cancer even at the earliest stages of development. Because of this, and because of more frequent screenings given to individuals in the medical system, physicians are able to diagnose cancer more frequently, including small, isolated cancerous developments that are unlikely to cause long-term issues.

  • Treatments. New and better treatments are available for most types of cancer, thanks to technological and scientific breakthroughs. While this doesn't specifically affect the rates of cancer diagnosis, it does decrease mortality.

  • Reporting. Human beings have known about cancer for thousands of years, but it's only within the last few decades that we've begun to understand it in depth. We can easily compare cancer statistics from the past several years, but it's much harder to get a high-level vision of cancer statistics over a longer period of time. Only recently have our medical institutions become consistent and thorough in reporting cancer data.

  • Access. Despite the flaws in the American healthcare system, more people have access to advanced healthcare than ever before. Doctors are recommending cancer screenings earlier and at more frequent intervals, insurance policies are covering those screenings, and people are more likely to take advantage of these services.


What Does It All Mean?

It's hard to generalize anything about cancer, since there are so many different varieties and so many different paths of development that this disease can take. But it does seem that age-adjusted cancer rates are falling slightly, even as unadjusted cancer rates are increasing. And more importantly, survival rates are steadily increasing – and are likely to increase further in the future.